Article submitted by Jamie Fleury, The Pilot News Staff Writer
PLYMOUTH — During the Plymouth Community School Corporation (PCSC) board meeting in November, Jerome McKibben of McKibben Demographic Research LLC advised the board of a declining population. According to McKibben, population forecast drives the enrollment forecast.
In order to conduct a forecast, a broad range of socio-economic “assumptions” are made within the model. McKibben highlighted several of those assumptions that are critical to growth or decline.
The first of several critical assumptions was detailed in Item B – Interest rates have risen from their historic lows and will not fluctuate more than two percentage points in the short term and that the interest rate for a 30-year fixed home mortgage stayed between 5.0% and 7.0% over the next ten years. McKibben said there has been “major and seismic change” in the market. “A year ago right now the 30 year fixed mortgage was 3.5%, this morning it was 7.1%. That screeching sound you hear outside is the housing market coming to a crash.” He discussed interest rate increases that might continue including the potential for 8.5% interest rates on mortgages by next year. “Anything above 7% will be a slow down on home sales.”
The second item he addressed was Item I: The rate of students transferring out of the Plymouth Community Schools will remain at the 2018-19 to 2022-23 average. The district averages -60 transfer students every year. “We are holding that constant. This is Indiana. It’s the only state in the nation that has intra-district transfers, charters and vouchers all going off at the same time. The one good thing that comes out of that is Indiana has the best student tracking system in the country bar-none.”
According to McKibben, the data reveals who is going where, where they are coming from and how many are transferring between districts. PCSC is averaging 350 students transferring in and 410 transferring out annually. The high ability to transfer in and out makes forecasting enrollment a challenge in the state of Indiana with parental choice being just one factor impacting the “high variation”.
Item Q assumes that the district will have at least an average of 225 existing home sales per year for the next decade and Item R assumes that the district will have at least an average of 30 new single-family homes constructed over the next decade. McKibben clarified that “homes” should actually read “housing units” which includes apartments. He illustrated that the supply of homes on the market have been at an all time low. Builders could not keep up with demand or get supplies for new construction.
According to McKibben, the “front end” of the “Baby Boomers” generation is 76 years old. Though many people want to stay near family and doctors, many people are forced to downsize if they lose their ability to drive or their spouse dies. Others voluntarily migrate and move to smaller homes or to warmer climates. That said, many homeowners over the age of 60 did not move during the pandemic. Overall family household sizes are also dropping. Rather than an anticipated boom in babies during the pandemic quarantine, population dropped.
McKibben said 75% of school districts in the state of Indiana will lose enrollment over the next ten years. He summarized that there is no single solution for PCSC to remedy the declining population, the high transfer ability, the housing market and the economy; but the best chance of increasing enrollment over the next decade is to increase transfers in and decrease transfers out. The entire report can be viewed on the PCSC website at plymouth.k12.in.us.
