The number of Hoosiers who’ve been infected with COVID-19 could be almost 11 times greater than the official case count. The Indiana University Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public Health recently tested more than 4,600 residents, representing the state’s population as a whole.
Preliminary results suggest that 2.8 percent of Hoosiers or about 186,000 people had been infected with the coronavirus by late April, according to principal investigator Dr. Nir Menachemi. “We also found that 44.8 percent of those that tested positive for active viral infections reported no symptoms,” he said during state officials’ COVID-19 press conference Wednesday. “This was already suspected by experts but never precisely determined until now. We further found that participants who reported living with a person in their household that was COVID-19-positive were significantly more likely, in fact 12 times more likely, to be positive themselves.”
Menachemi said that 1.7 percent of the participants had the virus when they were tested, while another 1.1 percent tested positive for antibodies indicating they’d already had it. He said the study also showed that of all the people who get infected, less than 0.6 percent will end up dying.
“I’m doing the math in my mind real quickly. It’s somewhere in the neighborhood of about 1 in 180 people who are infected die, which is a lot less worrisome than the numbers we had before but is not a necessarily we’re-scot-free number,” Menachemi cautioned. “This, for example, is significantly deadlier, almost six times deadlier, than seasonal flu, and it’s asymptomatic and more infectious.”
But while the study showed a much higher prevalence of COVID-19 in the state as a whole, there was an odd quirk when it came to the local area. Based on the study alone, there would be no COVID-19 cases at all in the Indiana State Department of Health’s District 2, which includes Marshall, Starke, Pulaski, St. Joseph, and Elkhart counties, among others. However, the actual number of confirmed cases is almost 1,600. Menachemi explained that of the 250 to 300 people selected, all of their tests came back negative.
State Health Commissioner Dr. Kris Box felt the study confirmed that the state’s social distancing measures were working, and the results underscore the importance of wearing masks in public. A second wave of testing is planned as part of the study next month.
